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Figure 9
csv
[145]
Figure 9 Data.csv
2022-08-04
R Code
[150]
Figure 9 R Code.R
2022-08-25
Study 1
AsPredicted #49202
[17]
Study 1 - AsPredicted 49202.pdf
2020-10-08
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[100]
Study 1 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[1]
Study 1 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[15]
Study 1.xlsx
2021-06-15
STATA
[133]
Study 1.do
2022-06-03
Study 2
AsPredicted #52607
[18]
Study 2 - AsPredicted 52607.pdf
2020-11-19
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[99]
Study 2 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[2]
Study 2 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[40]
Study 2.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[134]
Study 2.do
2022-06-03
Study 3
AsPredicted #52830
[19]
Study 3 - AsPredicted 52830.pdf
2020-11-23
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[107]
Study 3 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[3]
Study 3 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[42]
Study 3.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[135]
Study 3.do
2022-06-03
Study 4
AsPredicted #54339
[20]
Study 4 - AsPredicted 54339.pdf
2020-12-15
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[102]
Study 4 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[6]
Study 4 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[45]
Study 4.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[136]
Study 4.do
2022-06-03
Study 5
AsPredicted #56627
[21]
Study 5 - AsPredicted 56627.pdf
2021-01-25
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[101]
Study 5 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[4]
Study 5 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[43]
Study 5.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[137]
Study 5.do
2022-06-03
Study 6
AsPredicted #50850
[22]
Study 6 - AsPredicted 50850.pdf
2020-10-29
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[98]
Study 6 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[5]
Study 6 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[44]
Study 6.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[138]
Study 6.do
2022-06-03
Study 7
AsPredicted #51776
[23]
Study 7 - AsPredicted 51776.pdf
2020-11-10
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[103]
Study 7 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[8]
Study 7 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[46]
Study 7.xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[139]
Study 7.do
2022-06-03
Study 8
AsPredicted #56914
[24]
Study 8 - AsPredicted 56914.pdf
2021-01-28
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[104]
Study 8 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[7]
Study 8 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[82]
Study 8.xlsx
2021-10-14
R Code for Figure 10
[144]
Figure 10 R Code.R
2022-08-05
STATA
[140]
Study 8.do
2022-06-03
Study 9
AsPredicted #57883
[25]
Study 9 - AsPredicted 57883.pdf
2021-02-09
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[105]
Study 9 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[10]
Study 9 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[129]
Study 9.xlsx
2022-06-03
STATA
[141]
Study 9.do
2022-06-03
Study 10
AsPredicted #58543
[26]
Study 10 - AsPredicted 58543.pdf
2021-02-17
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[106]
Study 10 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-15
qsf - Qualtrics file
[9]
Study 10 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[130]
Study 10.xlsx
2022-06-03
STATA
[142]
Study 10.do
2022-06-03
Study S1
AsPredicted #80438
[84]
Study S1 - AsPredicted 80438.pdf
2021-11-18
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[108]
Study S1 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-16
qsf - Qualtrics file
[85]
Study S1 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-11-26
xlsx
[86]
Study S1.xlsx
2021-11-26
STATA
[123]
Study S1.do
2021-12-16
Study S2
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[111]
Study S2 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-16
qsf - Qualtrics file
[13]
Study S2 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[59]
Study S2.(file id 59).xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[124]
Study S2.do
2021-12-16
Study S3
AsPredicted #50021
[27]
Study S3 - AsPredicted 50021.pdf
2020-10-19
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[109]
Study S3 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-16
qsf - Qualtrics file
[12]
Study S3 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[58]
Study S3.(file id 58).xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[143]
Study S3.do
2022-06-04
Study S4
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[112]
Study S4 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-16
qsf - Qualtrics file
[11]
Study S4 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[62]
Study S4.(file id 62).xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[126]
Study S4.do
2021-12-16
Studies S4-S5 coding instructions
[97]
Studies S4-S5 coding instructions.pdf
2021-12-15
Study S5
pdf - Qualtrics survey
[110]
Study S5 - Qualtrics survey.pdf
2021-12-16
qsf - Qualtrics file
[14]
Study S5 - Qualtrics file.qsf
2021-06-15
xlsx
[63]
Study S5.(file id 63).xlsx
2021-06-16
STATA
[127]
Study S5.do
2021-12-16
Supplement
pdf - Supplement
[149]
Supplement.pdf
2022-08-05
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BOX INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY FILES FOR Hu B, Simmons JP. (2022) 'Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?'. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. . doi: 10.1037/xge0001291
LICENSE FOR USE All content posted to ResearchBox is under a
CC By 4.0 License (all use is allowed as long as authorship of the content is attributed). When using content from ResearchBox please
cite the original work, and provide a link to the URL for this box (https://researchbox.org/314).
BOX PUBLIC SINCE August 26, 2022 (files may not be changed, deleted, or added)
BOX CREATORS Beidi Hu (beidihu@wharton.upenn.edu) Joseph Simmons (jsimmo@upenn.edu)
ABSTRACT Can overconfidence be reduced by asking people to provide a belief distribution over all possible outcomes – that is, by asking them to indicate how likely all possible outcomes are? Although prior research suggests that the answer is “yes,” that research suffers from methodological confounds that muddle its interpretation. In our research, we remove these confounds to investigate whether providing a belief distribution truly reduces overconfidence. In 10 studies, participants made predictions about upcoming sports games or other participants’ preferences, and then indicated their confidence in these predictions using rating scales, likelihood judgments, and/or incentivized wagers. Contrary to prior research, and to our own expectations, we find that providing a belief distribution usually increases overconfidence, because doing so seems to reinforce people’s prior beliefs.