# 314 | ResearchBox


ResearchBox # 314 - 'Do Belief Distributions Reduce Overconfidence?'


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Figure 9
  


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Study 1


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Study 2


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Study 3


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Study 4


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Study 6


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Study 7


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Study 8


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Study 9


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Study 10


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Study S1


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Study S2


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Study S3


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Supplement


  Supplement.pdf


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BOX INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY FILES FOR
Hu B, Simmons JP. (2022) 'Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?'. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. .
doi: 10.1037/xge0001291

LICENSE FOR USE
All content posted to ResearchBox is under a CC By 4.0 License (all use is allowed as long as authorship of the content is attributed). When using content from ResearchBox please cite the original work, and provide a link to the URL for this box (https://researchbox.org/314).

BOX PUBLIC SINCE
August 26, 2022   (files may not be changed, deleted, or added)

BOX CREATORS
Beidi Hu (beidihu@wharton.upenn.edu)
Joseph Simmons (jsimmo@upenn.edu)

ABSTRACT
Can overconfidence be reduced by asking people to provide a belief distribution over all possible outcomes – that is, by asking them to indicate how likely all possible outcomes are? Although prior research suggests that the answer is “yes,” that research suffers from methodological confounds that muddle its interpretation. In our research, we remove these confounds to investigate whether providing a belief distribution truly reduces overconfidence. In 10 studies, participants made predictions about upcoming sports games or other participants’ preferences, and then indicated their confidence in these predictions using rating scales, likelihood judgments, and/or incentivized wagers. Contrary to prior research, and to our own expectations, we find that providing a belief distribution usually increases overconfidence, because doing so seems to reinforce people’s prior beliefs.